Musical chairs
Possible solutions to the Ukrainian Armed Forces manpower crisis
The greatest challenge to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in manning the frontlines, stems from the shortage of modern equipment, alongside the struggle to implement a sustainable mobilization strategy. To date, General Syrskyi has reported that 11 new brigades of troops have been formed and trained by NATO partners. However, there’s just inadequate numbers of equipment to support these new brigades. Sure, the typical loadout of the average infantry trooper would consist of a helmet, vests for plate carrying, uniforms, boots, entrenching tools, rifles, 8 magazines of rifle ammunition, a couple fragmentation grenades, and food and water. However, this is not the end of the story.
The traditional way of large scale military operations requires a large quantity of armoured vehicles, and supporting indirect fire (artillery such as mortars and howitzers, air defense artillery). The vehicles mobilize the units of troopers to the location of battle, and facilitate the exfiltration and retrograde of casualties and combatants, post combat. Depending on the type of brigade, light infantry or armoured infantry, the armoured vehicles required, will differ.
In lay person terms, if you were sick and went to a hospital, you would be seen by nurses, blood techs, emergency techs, radiographers, and doctors. You would not be seen by porters, cleaning staff, clerical staff, biomedical engineers and plant managers who operate the power generation and plumbing. There’s a whole spectrum of different roles, and each role requires different types of equipment to enable the completion of any tasks that will go into your patient care. A doctor (contradictory to common belief) does not heal a patient by mere x-ray vision, and holding out a hand, and say you are cured. The doctor needs a team, equipment and medicines to help you. In a car manufacturing plant, it’s not just the mechanics and engineers, using bare hands to produce a car. There is a complex symphony of robotic arms, heavy machinery and machine tools to produce a car.
In war, the organization of any armed force is the same. There are multiple roles played by different military occupations. These men and women need the right equipment to perform their duties to the best possible outcomes. You need tanks, infantry/armoured fighting vehicles, artillery, trucks, armoured personnel carriers, logistics, etc.
Currently, General Syrskyi estimates that only about one or two of the new brigades raised, can be equipped and deployed, albeit with old soviet styled mechanization. The crisis of desertion is mainly due to the frontline forces, facing shortages of heavy equipment, heavy weapons and shells for artillery, alongside the obvious fatigue and battle attrition. Even with the extensive use of fpv and traditional drones, these drones are not the panacea for the lack of true military equipment.
My proposal is to use the US Navy’s system of rotating crews. For each naval asset, i.e. aircraft carriers or submarines, there is a gold and blue crew. When the gold crew is assigned on deployment with the boat, the blue crew is assigned to personnel recovery, rest and relaxation (aka R&R), training drills and administrative duties. When the boat returns from deployment, there is a quick refit of the boat, by the blue crew, and they are assigned to a new deployment, with new commanders and crew. The gold crew is then assigned to shore for what the blue crew was doing previously. Rinse and repeat. This strategy (barring any long term overhaul of the boat), allows the maximal utilization of equipment, ensuring a steady deployment rate.
In the case of Ukraine, there are several excellent combat hardened units, well equipped but lacking rest. There are several lower profiled units, which have been deployed in perpetuity, suffering fatigue and casualty rates that are detrimental to the unit’s combat fitness. In essence, they are combat ineffective. Reports of soldiers abandoning positions, or outright surrendering to the inferior Russian units, and being executed, have surfaced. If the new brigades are twinned with any of these battered units, it will allow a proverbial light at the end of the tunnel to the tired soldiers.
How it can work, is that any new units are twinned with a frontline unit, with a permanent partnership. Initially, the new unit will be sent to the sponsor unit on the frontline, for a period of two weeks to four weeks, for battle immersion. This allows fresh troops to be trained on the job with the current battle hardened troops. Prior to this deployment, select senior or better qualified enlisted troops, are selected for NCO positions, and they will work with the fresh commissioned officers to provide a blueprint of the order of battle, as well as establishing the proper chain of command. Once deployed to the frontline unit, each officer, NCO and enlisted personnel, will be paired with the battle hardened counterpart. This allows the lessons learned, to be transferred. During the immersion phase, there will be fresh troops to help refresh the trench lines, as well as other defensive infrastructures. For mechanized units, they will take on the duties of the armour crews slowly, and given more responsibility as the fresh troops gain greater confidence and experience. Post immersion, the old unit will rotate to the rear echelon, for R&R, recuperation and recruitment. The units which have losses can use this time to train and integrate new soldiers into their units. Such activities can occur in safer parts of Ukraine, closer to home and family. After four months, they will head back to the frontline to allow their twinned units to rotate out for the same purpose. Rinse and repeat.
This is not a perfect strategy, as many hiccups can occur. I refer you to Murphy’s law. However, in the environment of equipment shortages, the most important resource, the individual soldier, can have a good rest, and recuperate, knowing someone else is maintaining the line. This can boost morale, knowing that they have a time limit to be in combat, and they can trust a hand off to trusted colleagues.
As Ryan Mcbeth (a legendary substack writer and YouTube personality) pointed out to me, it gets cold in the trenches. On top of the equipment shortage, it gets miserable quickly, and not knowing what the future holds, morale falls quickly. I fully agree with his points about the problems driving this crisis. Oh, and Ukraine’s friends and allies, hurry the f*** up with sending the equipment. You should have also figured out that if you can’t supply needed equipment, finance the Ukrainians to build their own equipment. Only one third of Ukraine’s military production industry has enough funds to produce the equipment needed. If Ukraine fails to defend itself, you can expect the Russians and their friends to turn up on your doorsteps.
In my continuing conscription series, I will be writing new pieces on different models used, as well as conscripts v. professional militaries. Please like, subscribe, share, and/or comment. Your support for my work is greatly appreciated!