Oh, Canada…
Defence, economy, housing, education, healthcare and government
Dear Canada, how are you feeling today? Are you feeling lost and insecure these days? When looking at the news on mainstream media, things look bleak. Canadian defence is in question, the economy is looking weak, and the unemployment rate is rising, things are costing too much, housing is still unaffordable, the education system is hungry for funding, and is our healthcare system still working for Canadians? Most importantly, where have all the leaders gone?
Defence
Our neighbours down south have elected a protectionist president, and the transactional nature of his approach to foreign policy, threatens to undermine Canadian national defence. For a long period of time, Canadians have been underfunding the department of national defence. The current budget assigned to defence, is 1.3% of GDP, which is one of the lowest amongst the NATO alliance. None of the signals from the current government, indicates any change in policy or strategy, to address this. One sliver of hope is that NORAD is beneficial for both Canada and the United States (thanks to Ryan Mcbeth for this point, and his substack is highly recommended). It is a crutch which holds the defence ties between both countries. Should Russia and China decide to pull a fast one on the arctic, the United States will not have it, regardless of the president. But more action is needed in addressing this issue.
Economy
The Canadian loonie is at a low point. This is a double edged sword, as it makes Canada a cheaper destination for tourism, and trade. However, the lowered value of the loonie will continue to drive inflation, as produce and goods will cost more for importation. This will hit the wallets of many average Canadian consumers, as the purchasing power parity plummets. Whilst major multinational corporations in Canada have the capacity to store goods and produce, to provide a buffer against the effects of expensive imports, small and medium sized enterprises are less immune to these effects. The strawberries at the local neighbourhood store in Toronto, will possibly cost twice as much as it costs today.
The incoming American presidential administration will also play a key role in how Canada’s economy turns out. With the threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian exports looming on the horizon, a trade war could deal a blow to the Canadian economy, further fueling inflation and volatility. The current national unemployment rate is 6.8%, a relatively high figure. Should the worse case scenario arise, Canada could face unemployment rates at unsustainable and unprecedented levels. The average Canadian household will suffer from an economic crisis. The central bank will not have the capacity to mitigate the economic effects with interest rate changes, as the scenario will be too complex for a single action solution. The current strategy of Team Canada, adopted by the federal government, is incoherent and disunited with the provincial governments.
Housing
The issues of housing have arisen over the past decade, and is currently an issue at crisis state. Regardless of locale, Canadians from the East Coast to the West Coast, all face similar challenges in seeking affordable housing. Home prices have risen sharply, and the prospect of the younger generations’ future home ownership, is fast vanishing. There is no united and coherent strategy between federal, provincial and municipal governments, in solving this crisis. There are non-profits that have excellent pilot programs to address the problem, but these are ineffectual at a national level. This crisis continues to grow, without a strong solution to resolve it.
Education
Funding for public education is at one of the lowest levels in inflation adjusted terms. Elementary schools, middle schools, high schools, colleges and universities, are all in financial distress. The infrastructure is aging, and the supply of educators is at critically low levels. Again, there is no strategy proposed to improve the situation, with a coordinated effort of all levels of government. It seems that Canadian society is failing its future talents.
Healthcare
The Canadian healthcare system has long been the pride of the country. In the past few decades, however, it has been thoroughly neglected. The global COVID pandemic has exposed the flaws of the healthcare system all across Canada. From a fragmented web of provincially administered healthcare systems, with overstretched resources, there is no uniformity in the care and accessibility that patients receive. The Canada Health Act of 1984, was supposed to ensure universal healthcare access for Canadians. 40 years later, it is a broken promise to provide an acceptable standard of care, across the country. Stories of overstretched emergency departments, shortage of healthcare workers, lack of facilities, inadequate funding, and lack of essential primary care, fill the newsrooms of Canadian broadcasters, with no end in sight. Healthcare providers are worn and tired, morale is low amongst the ranks.
As an example, the population growth in Canada’s largest city, Toronto, has been rapid. One would expect the commensurate increase in services, to provide for the growing population. Yet, the increase in healthcare services is nowhere to be found. A fact of this reality, is that the most recently built hospital in Ontario, during the COVID pandemic, was the first hospital built in Ontario, in decades, whereby another hospital was not closed.
Contrary to popular belief, healthcare workers cannot heal the sick by simply setting eyes on patients, hold their hands out, and tell the patients that they are healed. Doctors and nurses depend on expensive medications and equipment to treat illnesses and injuries. Yet, there is no universal pharmaceutical insurance for patients 18-65 years old. Unlike most other universal healthcare systems, many prescriptions are paid out of pocket by patients, with many struggling to afford the costs. If one suffers a fracture in the lower extremities, the fracture treatment is covered, but one will need to pay for the crutches. Doesn’t make much sense, does it?
Government
With the exception of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, whom have since moved on from their positions, there has been a lack of international leaders who are strong, popular and competent. Another exception is President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although he is a war time president with waning popularity. Canada is in the same unfortunate position, and does not appear to have a political leader who is embodies competence, compassion, honesty, strength, courage, popularity, integrity, and most importantly, leadership.
Of the three viable major parties, the absence of leadership is deafening. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is no Pierre Trudeau. Under his leadership, the liberal party has been through a series of scandals and mismanagement. There is also an aversion to discussing the infiltration by foreign governments in Canadian politics, an important issue that strong leaders would have no difficulty in addressing. Mr Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party has failed to address this issue and other pressing issues, to the satisfaction of many Canadians. Mr Pierre Poilievre, the current leader of the Conservative Party, is running a strong opposition to Mr Trudeau. However, one may perceive his opposition as a power grab, taking advantage of the weak Liberal Party leadership. He seems to be a semi-MAGA wannabe populist, who is power hungry, and just wants to be Prime Minister, with no intention of doing what is best for the country. He has failed twice to topple the current government, and is attempting a third time, which will likely fail. Mr Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the New Democratic Party (hardly new), has had some success with his political party’s willingness to partner with the Liberal Party, to produce limited results, to benefit average Canadians. However decent he can be seen, he is not seen as a strong, popular, effective and capable leader. In simple terms, he is no Jack Layton.
Given the current choices for the next Prime Minister of Canada, none are appealing, and it is likely a case of holding one’s nose and voting for whoever will do the least damage. Canada is facing a serious crisis. This is a crisis of leadership, or the lack of leadership. There is no candidate willing to step up in any of the three viable political parties, who fits the mould of great Canadian leaders of the past.
In the next few pieces, let’s delve deeper into these issues, as an uncertain future looms over Canada.